Doesn't this sound like deja vu all over again?

Anyone who is old enough to remember how the debacle in Vietnam developed cannot help but get an eerie feeling that history is repeating itself in Iraq. In spite of official reassurances from the Vice President, Secretary of Defense, and assorted other White House "sources" that we are winning, the rapidly deteriorating/escalating guerilla warfare makes such reassurances sound hollow. 

The tragedy is that the longer we continue operating on the assumption that our continued presence is essential to prevent civil war, the more likely it seems that civil war will become inevitable. We do not honor our brave men and women who are in harms way every day by deluding ourselves into believing that we have no alternative but to "stay the course" and finish what we started. Sound familiar? Of course it does. We could be listening to President Johnson and Defense Secretary McNamera forty years ago.

Every day that passes while our leadership ignores the reality that "staying the course" is not a mark of bravery but of abdication of responsibility moves us closer to the precipice of having no options left. We must ask ourselves which is worse, to "stay the course" and eventually evacuate our forces in humiliation as we did in Saigon while the "insurgents" take charge of the country, or acknowledge that our mission to depose a brutal dictator was accomplished long ago and begin focusing on an orderly disengagement and withdrawal strategy? 

Civil war may still develop regardless of what we do. But the longer we stay and pretend that we can prevent it from happening the more complicit we become if it does occur.

And the more billions of American resources we will divert from urgent and unmet needs at home.

What do you say to the last American to die in Iraq?

 The following excerpt is from a news story in today's New York Times followed by an excerpt from a story published on July 21, 2005. 

Defying U.S. Efforts, Guerrillas in Iraq Refocus and Strengthen

<http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/24/international/middleeast/24insurgents.html?th&emc=th>

By DEXTER FILKINS and DAVID S. CLOUD

Published: July 24, 2005

BAGHDAD, Iraq, July 23 - They just keep getting stronger.

Despite months of assurances that their forces were on the wane, the guerrillas and terrorists battling the American-backed enterprise here appear to be growing more violent, more resilient and more sophisticated than ever.

A string of recent attacks, including the execution of moderate Sunni leaders and the kidnapping of foreign diplomats, has brought home for many Iraqis that the democratic process that has been unfolding since the Americans restored Iraqi sovereignty in June 2004 has failed to isolate the insurgents and, indeed, has become the target itself.

After concentrating their efforts for two and a half years on driving out the 138,000-plus American troops, the insurgents appear to be shifting their focus to the political and sectarian polarization of the country - apparently hoping to ignite a civil war - and to the isolation of the Iraqi government abroad.

And the insurgents are choosing their targets with greater precision, and executing and dramatizing their attacks with more sophistication than they have in the past.

American commanders say the number of attacks against American and Iraqi forces has held steady over the last year, averaging about 65 a day.

But the Americans concede the growing sophistication of insurgent attacks and the insurgents' ability to replenish their ranks as fast as they are killed.

"We are capturing or killing a lot of insurgents," said a senior Army intelligence officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to make his assessments public. "But they're being replaced quicker than we can interdict their operations. There is always another insurgent ready to step up and take charge."

At the same time, the Americans acknowledge that they are no closer to understanding the inner workings of the insurgency or stemming the flow of foreign fighters, who are believed to be conducting a vast majority of suicide attacks. The insurgency, believed to be an unlikely mix of Baath Party die-hards and Islamic militants, has largely eluded the understanding of American intelligence officers since the fall of Saddam Hussein's government 27 months ago.

The danger is that the violence could overwhelm the intensive American-backed efforts now under way to draw Iraq's Sunni Arabs into the political mainstream, leaving the community more embittered than ever and setting the stage for even more violence and possibly civil war.

Go to   <http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/24/international/middleeast/24insurgents.html?th&emc=th>

to read the entire story.

[snip]

Today's NYT story is even more alarming against the backdrop of a story on July 21 regarding the lack of readiness of Iraqi  security forces to handle their own defense. For months we have been assured that the training of Iraqi forces was a top U.S. priority in Iraq. It is impossible to escape the conclusion that something is terribly wrong with the management of the training if the Pentagon's own assessment is that half of the forces are "still being established" while the "other half of the police units and two-thirds of the new army battalions" are incapable of independent action to meet the security needs of their country.

Iraqis Not Ready to Fight Rebels on Their Own, U.S. Says

By ERIC SCHMITT

Published: July 21, 2005

WASHINGTON, July 20 - About half of Iraq's new police battalions are still being established and cannot conduct operations, while the other half of the police units and two-thirds of the new army battalions are only "partially capable" of carrying out counterinsurgency missions, and only with American help, according to a newly declassified Pentagon assessment.

Only "a small number" of Iraqi security forces are capable of fighting the insurgency without American assistance, while about one-third of the army is capable of "planning, executing and sustaining counterinsurgency operations" with allied support, the analysis said.

The assessment, which has not been publicly released, is the most precise analysis of the Iraqis' readiness levels that the military has provided. Bush administration officials have repeatedly said the 160,000 American-led allied troops cannot begin to withdraw until Iraqi troops are ready to take over security.

[snip]